Constructive activity looming gap down accurate "guess" revival

Year approaching, market liquidity facing a critical point in time, the central bank is expected to drop quasi also heating up again。(Recommended reading) this year, the central bank has twice directed the implementation of RRR。The first was the implementation of an inclusive financial directed beginning January 25 RRR, releasing about 450 billion yuan of long-term liquidity。The second is directed lending convenient drop quasi interim replacement (MLF) April 25 implementation, the replacement part to remove 900 billion yuan, 400 billion yuan release incremental funding。  RRR effect for all to see, a whole stable market funds face this year, money market steadily downward in May。However, "not only see the total amount of liquidity, structural period is very important。"In the Industrial Bank chief economist Lu political commissar of the view that the current market performance reflects a number of structural problems still exist, directional drop quasi MLF replacement operation is still possible to continue in years。  Inter-bank funds face is really loose it compared with last year's liquidity squeeze during the year, money market seems calm。In particular, reflected in the overnight funds, the price is lower than last year's overall center。Even when the end of season 3 cross between Shanghai interbank offered (the Shibor) overnight price is not more than 2.7%。Although recently there has been greater volatility due to the end of factors, rose 2 overnight Shibor.Fluctuations in the financial side 88%, but the industry view, tax and other factors lead to the end of a normal phenomenon, it is expected to soon be back in balance。  But now the loose ends just short of funds, the long end funds or "rare"。Since the mechanism by limiting leverage, maturity mismatch can not, dare not add leverage, and therefore still have to borrow long-term funds。Market participants believe that only the appearance of loose liquidity, structural shortage problem still exists a deeper level。  Reporters learned that the long end of the price of money is quietly rising。1 year full-market collateral repo (R1Y) weighted interest rate this year remained above 5%, up nearly 6% higher than the average of last year, only 4% year away。  Forced strict regulatory agencies are also lengthen debt maturity。Recently, the "commercial banks' liquidity risk management approach," the official introduction of draft。Wherein the flow rate matching this indicator, designed to guide banks to lengthen the duration of liabilities end to match the duration of assets end, it means that the demand for long-term funds will continue to grow。"In the past the end of the quarter the bank with a capital accustomed to three-month deadline to do cross-season preparation, but in the new regulations, the lower the discount rate on three-month funds, in order to optimize the indicator, the future will gradually bank lending to funds lengthen the period。"He Jinjin Industrial Research, told reporters macro interest rate。  It can be seen strong demand for interbank funds, certificates of deposit, interbank interest rates are up。Currently, the AAA rating agencies issued one-year certificate of deposit interest rate increased to an average 4.More than 6%, compared with late April has been pulled up nearly 50 basis points。  Corporate finance business also "bad money" in the end the capital chain, more directly feel the tightening of the financing environment, corporate debt costs are a significant uplift。Nearly a month, six-month interest rate credit debt rating of AAA body up nearly 40 basis points to 4.72%。Rating worse corporate financing more difficult。  Financing situation between different enterprises show differentiation。Lu political commissar noted some recent environmental protection enterprises have a credit event reflects the more serious mistake than the duration of the presence of green companies with general corporate issues。  At present, the central banks of directional RRR coverage to small and micro enterprises, "three rural" loans, tackling poverty and the "double hit" in areas such as loans。Lu political commissar, you can also incorporate green financing, it seems from all channels, only the lowest drop quasi-capital costs, duration enough。  Prospects look forward to lower and lower market liquidity shocks rain on point in June, fiscal deposits fluctuations, quasi-tax pay to bring a part can provide short-term liquidity through open market operations to solve daily。But the long-term liquidity gap, still need long-term financial support drop quasi release。  It is worth noting that the central bank's reserve deposit payment institutions soared, market liquidity is being withdrawn from circulation part。Last year, the central bank requirements, payment institutions should reserve deposit customers to special deposit accounts in accordance with a certain percentage of the appointing authority。Therefore, since June last year, more than a "non-financial institutions deposit" subjects on central bank balance sheets。With the current deposit ratio increased to around 50% of this figure is from 8406 at the end of last year.7.7 billion yuan rapid growth to the end of April this year 4995.0.4 billion yuan, of which over 400 billion this year, is deposited。  "It's part of the funds, count the money multiplier, there is tightening effect on market liquidity and reduce the long-end funds。"One City firm believes that。  Lu political commissar is expected during the year as well as 0.5-1.Drop quasi space of five percentage points。"It can form complexes with the lever down。One of the goals this year is to reduce the drop lever degree of reliance on wholesale commercial bank financing, only to drop quasi lower the ratio, which is the lower part of the lever。"Related Reading